Breeding targets for heat-tolerant rice varieties in Japan in a warming climate

Abstract The breeding of heat-tolerant (HT) varieties is considered an effective adaptation measure to reduce the impacts global warming on crops. However, little known about how much heat tolerance needs be attained in HT and by when should introduced a climate. Here, we assessed effect introduction rice incidence low-quality grains (chalky grain, CRG, as result high temperatures), formulated target for Japan, where CRG already concern. Varieties with 3 °C higher temperature bred until 2040s under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 8.5, pessimistic scenario, considering uncertainties climate models impact assessment model, which were large. In median case, 1 2 are needed RCPs respectively. findings revealed necessary efforts research programs conditions warming.